COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF COUNTER- INSURGENCY AGAINST AL-SHABAAB IN SOMALIA, 2006–2024
Keywords:
Counter-insurgency;, community engagement, Al-Shabaab, Somalia, local leadership, community policing, peacebuildingAbstract
Purpose of the Study: This study evaluated the influence of community engagement on the effectiveness of counter-insurgency against Al-Shabaab in Somalia between 2006 and 2024. Specifically, it examined the contribution of community policing, local leadership participation, civic education, and youth engagement in peacebuilding to improving security outcomes and reducing insurgent influence.
Methodology: The study employed a mixed-methods design integrating descriptive and correlational approaches. Data were collected from 207 respondents across Mogadishu, Kismayo, Baidoa, Beledweyne, and Dhusamareeb using questionnaires and key informant interviews. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and multiple regression, while qualitative data underwent thematic analysis.
Findings: The findings established that all four dimensions of community engagement positively and significantly influenced counter-insurgency effectiveness. The regression model explained 73.2 percent of the variation in counter-insurgency outcomes (R² = .732, p < .001). Local leadership participation emerged as the strongest predictor (β = .347), followed by community policing (β = .289), civic education (β = .276), and youth engagement (β = .213). The study further found that community trust, intelligence sharing, civic awareness, and youth participation strengthened resilience against extremist influence and enhanced cooperation between citizens and security agencies in affected communities.
Conclusion: The study concludes that military operations alone cannot achieve sustainable success against Al-Shabaab. Effective counter-insurgency in Somalia requires an integrated community-based approach anchored on accountable local leadership, trust-based community policing, civic education, and meaningful youth participation to strengthen security, resilience, and long-term peace and stability.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21134133
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