Beyond State Fragility: Commodified Sovereignty, Hybrid Order and the Geopolitics of the Horn of Africa
Keywords:
Horn of Africa, state fragility, regional security complex, Red Sea, sovereignty, Somaliland, hybrid political order, political marketplace, Gulf states, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, African agencyAbstract
Purpose of the Study: This study critiques the dominant state fragility paradigm used to explain insecurity in the Horn of Africa and proposes an alternative analytical framework. It examines how hybrid political orders, commodified sovereignty, regional security dynamics, and African agency provide a more comprehensive explanation of contemporary geopolitical developments between 2024 and 2026.
Methodology: The study employs an interpretive qualitative methodology based on structured theoretical synthesis and documentary analysis. It draws upon peer-reviewed literature, official government statements, United Nations records, policy reports, and reputable international media to analyse major regional developments through regional security complex theory, negotiated statehood, hybrid political orders, and political marketplace perspectives.
Findings: The findings demonstrate that the state fragility paradigm inadequately explains the evolving security landscape of the Horn of Africa because it overemphasises institutional weakness while overlooking regional geopolitical interactions. Evidence shows that sovereignty has become a strategic commodity exchanged through recognition, port access, military basing, and diplomatic alliances. The Horn increasingly functions as a regionalised security complex closely integrated with Gulf politics, where local political orders are negotiated, hybrid, and shaped by both domestic and external actors. Furthermore, African governments and sub-state entities exercise significant agency, strategically influencing regional alignments rather than merely responding to external interventions.
Conclusion: The study concludes that replacing the state fragility paradigm with a regionalised hybrid security framework provides a more accurate explanation of the Horn of Africa's evolving security landscape. Sustainable peace requires recognising African agency, negotiated political order, and regionally driven governance approaches instead of externally imposed state-building models.
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